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The surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate gives the GOP a shot of adrenalin. It will infuse the Republican convention with all the buzz and excitement that many feared it might lack. It also shakes up the national campaign, with little more than two months to go before Election Day.
Democrats came roaring out of Denver united and enthused and confident that their ticket would stand in sharp contrast to the Republicans', especially in youth and diversity. But the Palin choice will allow Republicans to cheer their own enthusiastically in Minneapolis-St. Paul. "This is not your grandfather's GOP -- and not a party reserved for rich white men" -- will be the message. Themes of change and reform will be central, allowing a greater appeal to moderates and independents. The bold move to tap Palin allows McCain to claim that history, renewal and change are on his side as much as they are on Obama's.
But the bar will be set very high for the 44-year-old Palin, who needs to both inspire voters and reassure them that she has the experience and temperament to sit one heartbeat away from the presidency. Democrats will be sure to point out that her selection came on McCain's 72nd birthday. If he wins, he will be older than any other president to take the oath of office.
Palin certainly sounded adroit and capable in her Dayton, Ohio, remarks Friday, calling herself a fighter against special interests, a government reformer and a "hockey mom" who says the new challenge "will demand the best I have to give and I promise nothing less."
She also made a blatant appeal for dissatisfied supporters of Hillary Clinton, praising Clinton's candidacy and then pointing out that "the women in America aren't finished yet, and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all" by voting Republican. But Clinton supporters are likely to have trouble accepting Palin's views on abortion and other social issues, on which she adheres to the conservative line. They might also resent her trying to capitalize on all the hard work Clinton put into the campaign.
Largely unknown on the national stage, Palin, the mother of five, was elected governor fewer than two years ago, collecting just 115,000 votes in a state that is huge in size but tiny in population. She brings youth and vigor to the ticket, an important strength, and she adds short but welcome executive experience, with her record of rooting out corruption and reducing government waste in Alaska. What she doesn't have is any national or international experience. The Obama campaign says having her on the GOP ticket takes the Obama experience issue off the table. McCain will argue that his experience more than makes up for any gap. Still, it may be harder for McCain to keep arguing that Obama is too new on the scene to be commander in chief, now that he has picked someone with less national security expertise to step in without notice should anything happen to him.
While Alaska has only a few electoral votes, Palin can help McCain win Rocky Mountain states, including Colorado. The choice of Palin -- and Obama's pick of Joe Biden -- speak to election strategies that are national and theme driven, not geographically driven.
When Republicans convene Monday, they will have two major goals. One will be to present McCain as a war hero with steel in his spine -- an independent-minded but loyal Republican with a bright vision of reform. Doing that will mean presenting McCain as his own man, refuting Democratic claims that he offers, in effect, a third Bush term. It's crucial that Republicans separate McCain from Bush, who is widely unpopular with independents, while not going so far as to turn off Republican conservatives. The Palin choice can help here, putting focus on change and reform.
The second will be to spread doubt about Obama. If change was the watchword in Denver, risk will serve that purpose in Minneapolis-St. Paul. With convention speakers warning viewers not to take the risk of electing Obama, they'll say his thin record in public service and national security makes him too much of a question mark to be entrusted with the presidency.
On specific issues, Republicans will argue for making Bush's tax cuts permanent, and warn that Obama would raise taxes. There'll be frank talk of the economy, acknowledging hard times for many families and tight budgets, but saying long-term prospects are bright for economic revival.
Energy and oil will be portrayed as a national security issue, stressing a pressing need to expand domestic oil drilling. Look for Palin, a strong supporter of Alaska's own energy development, to emphasize this.
Iraq will play a major role. While Democrats stressed the war in Afghanistan and blamed McCain for not pursuing Osama bin Laden there, Republicans will give McCain credit for the surge in Iraq and the progress it has brought. They'll also say a large reduction of troops is possible, even probable, in the near term, an effort to dampen criticism that he would keep the military mission -- in some capacity -- going for perhaps decades.
The convention may also mark a beginning of a realignment and restoration of the Republican Party. It's why the Palin addition is important. That's not to say McCain is not calling the shots on policy and GOP posture next week, but Republicans will showcase new faces, including Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor -- all, by the way, once considered vice presidential prospects.
One bottom line about the GOP convention: This is not McCain's effort to shore up the base or bring evangelicals fully into line behind him. He'll gamble that will happen anyway with conservative credentials compared with Obama and Biden with their liberal voting records. The core has decided already for the most part. This is about appealing more broadly to independents and moderates, the key group this fall. To that end, Republicans will underscore a common sense conservatism, not strident or revolutionary social conservative zeal that many in the party feel has marginalized it since the Republican Revolution of 1994.
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POSTED BY: Kent Webb (August 29, 2008 05:49 PM)
Palin will be in a good position to make congressional reform an issue. McCain fighting with Pelosi would look like bad form; but a younger woman with a reformer history can take Pelosi on directly and her position over the Senate as VP will give her a great bully pulpit on the issue.
No earmarks, balancing budgets and saying no to evergrowing entitlement spending can be made to sound mean and harsh even though it is fiscally necessary. Palin, as a young mother with a disabled child will be tougher to make look greedy, cruel, out of touch and willing to "throw America's children under the bus."
POSTED BY: Gregori (August 29, 2008 10:03 PM)
Why not roll the dice if you are McCain - what does he have to lose at this pont? it's a bold pick - but risky. Did you see her on MSNBC last month? "I really dont know what the VP does." I dont think she can appeal to pro-choiceers with her views on that and staunch creationism. But - she's charming and appealing - so if the media focuses on that - who knows what can happen? 3 months from now, she will either be considered a brilliant pick, or a female Dan Quayle. 30% chance she will have to resign because of 'troopergate.'
POSTED BY: Robert England (August 30, 2008 09:01 AM)
The Palin nomination provides a breath of fresh air to an otherwise stale McCain candidacy. None of the other short list names could have captured the imagination and spurred enthusiasm nearly as much this one. Brilliant!
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